Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
47 Dayton 95.2%   9   23 - 7 15 - 3 23 - 7 15 - 3 +10.9      +5.9 47 +5.0 55 68.5 153 +11.3 46 +13.3 1
49 Rhode Island 100.0%   11   24 - 9 13 - 5 24 - 9 13 - 5 +10.9      +4.7 58 +6.1 40 63.2 281 +10.1 53 +8.8 4
51 Virginia Commonwealth 81.6%   11   26 - 8 14 - 4 26 - 8 14 - 4 +10.3      +4.3 64 +6.0 45 67.7 181 +10.9 47 +11.6 2
87 Davidson 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 17 - 15 8 - 10 +5.6      +2.6 96 +3.0 88 69.0 138 +4.7 102 +2.4 9
88 Richmond 0.0%   20 - 12 13 - 5 20 - 12 13 - 5 +5.3      +3.5 80 +1.7 114 69.3 127 +6.1 89 +9.6 3
91 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   20 - 12 11 - 7 20 - 12 11 - 7 +4.9      +2.3 106 +2.6 96 69.5 122 +4.2 106 +5.5 5
109 George Mason 0.0%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +3.4      +2.7 95 +0.7 153 69.2 128 +4.3 105 +3.2 7
113 George Washington 0.0%   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +3.1      +2.7 92 +0.3 167 63.6 275 +4.7 99 +5.1 6
139 La Salle 0.0%   15 - 15 9 - 9 15 - 15 9 - 9 +1.4      +3.7 75 -2.4 240 69.3 125 +2.1 125 +2.5 8
150 Massachusetts 0.0%   15 - 18 4 - 14 15 - 18 4 - 14 +0.6      -2.3 228 +3.0 89 75.4 33 +0.1 157 -4.1 12
179 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 -0.7      -1.4 204 +0.7 154 68.0 169 -0.9 179 -4.4 13
192 Fordham 0.0%   12 - 19 7 - 11 12 - 19 7 - 11 -1.6      -5.2 302 +3.7 78 61.3 316 -1.7 197 +0.3 10
209 Duquesne 0.0%   10 - 22 3 - 15 10 - 22 3 - 15 -2.9      -1.6 212 -1.3 206 72.8 65 -6.1 253 -6.8 14
244 Saint Louis 0.0%   12 - 21 6 - 12 12 - 21 6 - 12 -5.0      -5.1 300 +0.1 174 59.7 330 -2.5 207 -0.6 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Dayton 1.0 100.0
Rhode Island 3.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.0 100.0
Davidson 9.0 100.0
Richmond 3.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 5.0 100.0
George Mason 7.0 100.0
George Washington 6.0 100.0
La Salle 7.0 100.0
Massachusetts 12.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 12.0 100.0
Fordham 10.0 100.0
Duquesne 14.0 100.0
Saint Louis 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 15 - 3 100.0
Rhode Island 13 - 5 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 100.0
Davidson 8 - 10 100.0
Richmond 13 - 5 100.0
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 100.0
George Mason 9 - 9 100.0
George Washington 10 - 8 100.0
La Salle 9 - 9 100.0
Massachusetts 4 - 14 100.0
Saint Joseph's 4 - 14 100.0
Fordham 7 - 11 100.0
Duquesne 3 - 15 100.0
Saint Louis 6 - 12 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 100.0% 100.0
Rhode Island
Virginia Commonwealth
Davidson
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
George Mason
George Washington
La Salle
Massachusetts
Saint Joseph's
Fordham
Duquesne
Saint Louis


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 95.2% 0.0% 95.2% 9   0.4 6.3 26.6 34.4 23.1 4.4 0.0 4.8 95.2%
Rhode Island 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 1.9 7.0 31.2 52.8 7.1
Virginia Commonwealth 81.6% 0.0% 81.6% 11   0.0 0.5 3.9 11.0 27.5 35.5 3.3 18.4 81.6%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 95.2% 1.1% 94.5% 39.8% 7.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Rhode Island 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 35.6% 9.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 81.6% 23.3% 68.3% 24.0% 5.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.8 0.6 22.0 77.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.6 1.2 34.7 64.1 0.0
2nd Round 70.7% 1.0 29.3 45.4 22.0 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 20.7% 0.2 79.3 19.3 1.4 0.0
Elite Eight 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.6 0.1
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0